Bearing market deflation, there are two major structural trends in the future
Source: Zhihu Research Institute, public account Star Fortune
The bearing industry is a long-slope and thick snow industry, and there are two major trends in the follow-up, one is the transfer of the industrial chain, and the other is the wind power industry.
Trend 1: Specialized division of labor + industrial chain transfer, optimistic about local parts companies with cost advantages
Important industry trends in the bearing industry:
①The pressure on the profit side and the uncertainty of the external environment have increased, prompting the bearing factory to outsource more production processes. A more thorough professional division of labor enables the bearing factory to focus on the core barriers on the bearing design side, enhance its ability to flexibly respond to customer needs, and reduce the risk of heavy asset investment;
② Benefiting from the improvement of domestic technology level and labor quality, the bearing industry chain is expected to gradually transfer to my country.
Under this trend, the transfer of the industrial chain is expected to expand the cake of the domestic bearing industry chain. The specialized division of labor in the bearing industry is expected to enable parts companies to undertake more processing procedures and improve the added value and profitability of products. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to local cost advantages. Bearing parts enterprises, the main relevant links are ferrules, rolling elements, etc.
Trend 2: Wind power industry expansion + import substitution, optimistic about the local bearing leader breaking through to high-end bearings
With the help of policies, the average annual installed capacity of wind power during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to exceed 50GW, the space for fan bearings is expected to continue to expand, and the large-scale wind turbine is expected to increase the value of a single bearing product.
According to estimates, the single-year wind power bearing market size during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan. The localization rate of yaw pitch bearings has been relatively high, and the main shaft bearings above 3WM are still mainly monopolized by foreign capital.
Under the circumstance that the supply of wind power spindles is in short supply and the production capacity of overseas brand wind power bearings is limited, there is a lot of room for development of domestic replacement of wind power bearings.
Introduction to the wind power industry chain
First briefly introduce the wind power bearing. The bearing is the joint of the mechanical equipment. The wind power bearing is one of the components used to connect the yaw, transmission and other systems in the unit. Generally, it can be divided into main shaft bearings (1-3 sets), yaw bearings (1 set), pitch bearing (3 sets) three kinds.
Among them, the main shaft bearing is used to support the main shaft, and the theoretical life can be as high as 20 years (but the bearing often has lubrication problems). The yaw bearing is used to connect the nacelle and the tower, which can track the change of wind direction and improve the power generation efficiency. The pitch bearing connects the blade to the hub, thereby changing the angle of the blade.
Classification of Wind Power Bearings (Zhiyan Consulting)
Since the production process of yaw and pitch bearings is relatively simple, Xinqianglian, ZWZ, etc. have basically achieved import substitution, so we also focus on the main shaft bearings.
Combing the overall competition pattern of wind power spindle bearings, you will find that although the cost of this piece only accounts for about 5% of the cost of the wind turbine, it is still mainly controlled by traditional giants such as Germany, Sweden, and Japan. Our top players such as Xinqianglian and Luozhuan account for less than 10% of the market.
Market Share of Spindle Bearings (2020)
In 2006, the government issued a policy of "70% localization rate of wind power equipment" (but it was later cancelled). In the face of the powerful enemies of Europe and Japan, how are the leading domestic enterprises doing their best on the spindle bearings?
Profile of foreign players (official website of the company)
Taking the 3MW unit as an example, among the domestic first-tier players, Xinqianglian has been able to achieve mass production. For example, among the 1,000 units shipped by onshore wind power player Mingyang Smart each year, more than 80% of the spindle bearings are from new Qianglian, the delivery time is generally about half a year. Goldwind Technology, Dongfang Electric, and Shanghai Electric also have cooperative relations with Xinqianglian. The progress of ZWZ and LuoZhou is a little slower, but they have also started to supply small batches. And it is said that Envision Energy continues to export the main shaft bearing technology to Luozhou, and is determined to make its little brother thrive.
When the power is greater than 5MW, it is more difficult to process the bearing, which puts forward more stringent requirements for the R&D and production capacity of the enterprise. At present, only Xinqianglian has achieved small-scale production, and other local players are still crossing the river by feeling the stones on this road. The gap between the two now seems to be getting bigger and bigger, and the Matthew effect is obvious.
An important piece of information should be added here. Generally speaking, it takes at least three years from small batches to large-scale production, because it also includes the customer's verification process of product stability. Therefore, we still have a long way to go in the domestic replacement of high-power spindle bearings.
The overseas traditional tyrants just mentioned are also based on this industry experience, and have the courage not to cut prices. This courage is not given by Liang Jingru, but by product design and application experience.
Main shaft bearing price (self-made by Star Fortune)
In the future, according to agency forecasts, the scale of the wind power bearing market will exceed 10 billion yuan (10.6 billion) in three years, and the industry has broad room for growth.